Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
