A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
