Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".